What Is Shaping Electric Two-Wheelers Toward 2030
· Ainne Zhang — Operations Director
Urbanization, emissions rules and battery cost are the themes dealers hear. This note does not quote a market-size forecast.
Key Takeaways
- Urbanization, emissions rules and battery cost are the themes dealers hear.
- This note does not quote a market-size forecast.
Dealers ask what will still matter for electric two-wheelers later this decade. The themes that keep coming up are urbanization in Asia-Pacific and Africa, where two-wheelers are everyday transport; emissions rules in the EU, North America and China; and the fact that lithium-ion packs cost less to build than they did several years ago. This note does not attach a dollar total or a growth rate to those themes, because no primary source for a single global forecast is cited here.
In several markets, electric scooters and motorcycles are being compared with gasoline models on purchase price as well as running cost. Subsidy and incentive rules in India, Indonesia and Vietnam change by programme, so they should be checked for the model and the year of import rather than treated as a standing discount.
Manufacturers are also spending on swappable packs, connected vehicles and dealer or direct distribution. Which of those a buyer actually needs is a quotation question, not a forecast.